NYC Severe Weather Possible Tonight
Good morning everyone. We’re tweaking the forecast a bit today with some slight changes, and adding into the discussion the chance of some thunderstorms later in the evening/tonight. This area of energy has been in my mind since Sunday, but didn’t want to get into it until after Memorial Day Weekend since views are typically low and it would get ignored.
SATELLITE
First off, that warm front gets very close to us today and I’m going to tweak the temperatures slightly for the NYC area. Nothing changes otherwise, but instead of low to mid 60’s, we could see some near 70 temps in the NYC area. Out on Long Island and the further east you go out there, the more raw it feels. Out there, look for mid 60’s and as you head towards the forks, near 60 temps. Either way, we still have a maritime fetch and along the immediate shore, even in NYC, it’ll feel nasty compared to yesterday and day’s prior.
We’ll also have a few waves of showers moving through associated with our warm front. It won’t be a full washout, but expect periods of rain; maybe a few rumbles of thunder, especially in the afternoon.
This evening, a vigorous but compact wave, will be heading down from the Great Lakes/Western NY region. This has the potential to touch off a round of heavy evening/nighttime thunderstorms. In this type of setup, you don’t need sunshine and perfect conditions to keep storms alive when they get down here. They’ll have their own fuel/convection as they race southeast. We’ll have to see where they set up and where they move, but the potential is there for some of these cells to be severe in nature. The biggest threats are strong winds and hail, especially just to our NW; but we also cannot rule out the chance of an isolated tornado.
Look for the heaviest action setting up somewhere between 7pm and 12am.
REGIONAL RADAR
Tomorrow, we take a step away from the action and we’ll have a generally seasonal day. Look for clouds and sun, a light northerly flow, and highs in the 75-80 range. Overnight tomorrow, we could see another round of thunderstorm action as energy continues to ride up and over that stubborn ridge in the Southeast.
On Thursday, we increase the humidity and we’ll keep the chance of a shower or storm in the area. I’m going conservative for now on the temps, but it’s to feel sticky and warm regardless; highs 80-85 which might need some fine-tuning as we get close.
Friday remains looking like the best day of the week, which is rare for my birthday. It’s typically a fast-swinging pendulum between raw and rainy to hot with tornados; but this time I catch a break with sunny skies and 75-80 degree temps. A few places might break 80 if the wind profile is favorable.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The first part of your weekend remains looking solid as well, with Friday’s weather carrying over to Saturday. On Sunday though, we reset the pattern as that ridge in the Southeast re-establishes itself. Another non-washout, but we could get a round of showers though the area.
Stay tuned while we enter another period of day-today forecasting and tweaks; adjusting for fronts that are slightly late, slightly early, or get hung up over the area. Keep an eye the radar tonight as well.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.