NYC SNOW ROUND TWO LIKELY
NYC SNOW ROUND TWO LIKELY – Models are in agreement enough and I’m seeing what I need to see as far as development to the point in which I have decided to call the ball. Unless there are any major shifts, the NYC area is going to see a snow event, albeit a light one. These types of forecasts are very complicated due to the fact that we’re trying to predict a system that is not fully developed yet, and the cutoff of heavy snow, light snow, to no snow at all, will be very dramatic. This could potentially blow up in my face, but I’m going with my gut.
The latest HRRR model is further northwest with snow and would argue to perhaps shift the western edge of the heavier snow to just inland of the coast. We will see if this trend continues.
NYC SNOW HRRR SATURDAY THROUGH 12NOON
CLICK TO ANIMATE
Snow will begin tomorrow just after noon, with highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Snow ends late evening, gusty north wind, and lows in the upper teens. Sun returns on Sunday, but it won’t do much as highs will only reach the mid 20’s and gusty winds all day. Sunday night, winds calm down and lows in the mid teens.
NYC SNOW ROUND TWO LIKELY – Provided is the National Weather Service map where I am in 50/50 agreement with it. First off, I think the snow amounts for MOST of the NYC area are accurate – a coating to 2″. However, when everything is said and done, I think the axis of snow amount differences will be more of a north/south axis compared to a SW to NW tilt, but that’s all trivial. I think western areas of Staten Island and the north Bronx will see only a coating to an inch at best. I also believe that Riverhead Long Island to the Forks will see 6-12″ of snow instead of 5-7″. As I said before, the cutoff will be dramatic, and a deviation of just 15-25 miles can make a big difference. Plus, any surprise heavy band of snow that moves across Long Island and possibly into the NYC area as the system slows down for a short period off of Cape Cod, could up the amounts by an inch or two in some areas.
Stay tuned tomorrow late morning for a full update on the radar and final path of the storm, which will give us the most solid idea of the final tally as far as snow.
Satellite shows things are looking real healthy in the southeast, with deep convection in the northern gulf area and an upper air disturbance coming in from Oklahoma to energize the system even more.
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