NYC Tropical Update Tropical Storm Lee Almost Hurricane
Good morning everyone and welcome to the latest tropical update and update on the heatwave impacting the NYC area. Our lull in the tropical activity didn’t last very long, but in essence, we will have had a 2 week break between Hurricane Idalia and the threat Hurricane Lee may impose. As they say, waiting for a hurricane and the forecast to unfold, is like being stalked by a turtle; so this is going to take some time.
As of now, Tropical Storm Lee is nearing nearing hurricane strength. Looking at the structure and pressure of the last update, I wouldn’t be surprised that it becomes a hurricane as I’m typing or by the next update. This system has plenty of room and “friendly” atmosphere to strengthen and grow, which means a category 4 or 5 hurricane is within reach of its full potential.
As stated a couple of days ago, we have a long way to go on this, but it is concerning that Lee remains a feature on every single model run in both the GFS and EURO models. This means that we have to watch very closely and not rule anything out. Right now my concern is from North Carolina to Nova Scotia/Newfoundland, with NYC to Nova Scotia the main focus on some of these model runs.
I’m keeping a close eye on high pressure in the Great Lakes region, along with an approaching cold front in conjunction with the approach of what-will-be Hurricane Lee. This can end in several different scenarios. Obviously a direct hit to Long Island or the NYC area will be very destructive, but also keep in mind that a New England hit can also cause major flooding in the Long Island/NYC area. Historical records show this as it is common that water piles in from the Long Island Sound and can cause big problems from the region.
The “best-case” scenario is that Hurricane Lee goes into Nova Scotia or further out for a Newfoundland hit. Obviously this is not good for our friends in Canada, but right now I don’t see this thing getting fully kicked out to sea. That being said, a direct hit on western Nova Scotia would cause major issues for Maine and flooding for parts of Cape Cod, Boston, and other ports in New England.
Stay tuned as this window of concern remains mid-month (the end of next week). Below is your local forecast….
SATELLITE
The heat is on and remains in the area today and tomorrow. We’re going for low to mid 90’s today under mostly sunny skies, and we’ll have pretty much the same for tomorrow.
Clouds will increase on Friday, and we’ll have a very warm and humid day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80’s, with the chance of PM showers & storms.
WEATHER RADAR
That front will get hung up over the weekend, which means no true cool-off and the chance of showers and storms linger both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 80’s and humid.
On Monday we finally begin to cool off with sunshine and highs in the upper 70’s to near 80. Hopefully by then we get some better news, or at least a clearer picture on what to expect with Hurricane Lee.
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