NYC Wide Ranging Temps Entering October
Good morning everyone. We have a complicated week temp-wise in the area, plus some questions as to how long the warmth lasts on Wednesday, how warm we go, how much rain on Thursday, and how cool do we go for the upcoming weekend. I have the mine detector out and ready to go, so take a walk with me through the minefield of tough forecasting.
SATELLITE
Today’s an easy one. We start off with some partly cloudy skies, then we’ll have more clouds than sun. A steady NE to E to SE flow will help keep us cool along with the lack of full sunshine. Look for highs in the 65-70 range, and we could also have some enhanced tides/minor coastal flooding in the nuisance spots. This is due to the maritime winds pushing some extra water in, and we’re only a couple of days removed from the new moon.
REGIONAL RADAR
Tomorrow is transition day #1. We’ll actually be transitioning all week, so it gets a little dicey forecast-wise, but I think tomorrow is easy to get a grasp on as well. Expect more clouds than sun as that warmer airmass begins to try and move in. We’ll be rain-free and any maritime fetch left over, will swing around to a SSW direction. Highs tomorrow will be in the 75-80 realm depending on the sunshine.
To me, Wednesday is looking more complicated as the warm air makes it in, but a cold front tries to sink down early from the north. If things hold on long enough, we could see 85-90 degree temps before any storms move through, or the front passes through with little fanfare; so we have multiple issues on Wednesday. How long do we heat up for, and if this front has any juice with it. At minimum, we’ll definitely get some low 80’s out of this, but anything beyond has to be seen.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Thursday is just as complicated, with warmer air trying to fight back briefly, but it won’t make it in. That cold front sinking down Wednesday, tries to make it back on Thursday as a warm front; with the main cold front not farm behind. For now, I think we’re looking at a cloudy, rainy morning on Thursday. It doesn’t look like the warm front fully makes it, so we remain cloudy with highs 65-70. We’ll have a break with the rain, then the rest of the system could bring another shot of rain Thursday night. That’s when everything moves through and sets us up for an easy Friday.
With the cold front gone, Canadian high pressure moving in, and windy day in the cards, expect a sunny day with highs 65-70 on Friday. It’ll feel cooler with that breeze, but this is more towards what this time of October should feel like.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Yesterday, I said that some of the models weren’t handling the cool blast well and may be overdoing it, which is why I said I’m staying conservative on this one. I’m standing my ground and even go a bit further. Sunday I said could be the warmer of the two, and that’s working out fine as well. I think the air modifies quickly and overall it won’t grab too many headlines.
Look for low to mid 60’s on Saturday with sunny skies, then we quickly recover into upper 60’s to low 70’s on Sunday. 40’s are still in the cards overnight Friday into Saturday morning, and the first frost is possible in areas upstate.
Either way, Saturday is looking cooler than average this time of year, then Sunday we return to what October should feel like. Nothing more, nothing less.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.