SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE CREATES NYC HEATWAVE QUESTIONS
SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE CREATES NYC HEATWAVE QUESTIONS – Good morning everyone! The hardest part about long range forecasting to me, is the “anomaly”. You can be one of the best in the business, but the anomaly can throw everything off and change a pattern for the rest of the season. We don’t know if this is the case yet, but we will discuss in full what we have in front of us. First, let’s deal with the immediate future.
Our expected cool down is in full swing and as promised, we have a beautiful, breezy, sunny, and dry day today. Highs will be near 80 today, which puts us about 1-3 degrees below normal depending on where you live; it’ll also feel a little bit cooler with that light northeast breeze. For tomorrow, we bump up the heat and humidity with the approach of a warm front, a slight chance of thunderstorms, and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Some of these storms could be locally severe, with gusty winds and hail the biggest threat.
For Friday, we remain a little soupy, but temps will drop slightly with southeast winds and mostly cloudy skies ahead of an approaching low pressure system, highs in the upper 70’s to near 80. We’ll have a chance of some steady rain, especially as the day wears on. As we watch this low pressure develop, we’ll have to wait on the final track to see how much rain (if any) we get. It’s quite possible that this entire system slides to our south, giving southern NJ the majority of the rain. That being said, whether it’s a hit or miss, it’ll still affect our weekend in one form or another. This low pressure system looks like a fast mover, which means that any clouds and rain should be gone by Saturday morning; leaving us with a cool, breezy day, and decreasing clouds into the late afternoon, highs near 80.
Before this system came into the picture, we were headed for the mid 80’s, so this anomaly has already impacted two days of the gradual warmup that was originally expected. Sunny skies, seasonable temps, and a light breeze, return Sunday for a very pleasant day. After that, we watch patiently for our early August heat.
As of now, I’m thinking we have a warm and humid week for Monday through Friday, with temps above normal Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday; possibly Friday. Then we wait and see if our low pressure system this weekend created a good enough ripple in the jet to open the door for similar type systems to develop in our region. If the jet settles down, we are looking at a period of prolonged heat and humidity. If it becomes volatile, we are looking at short periods of cool, followed by short periods of heat.
For the marine forecast, decent size boats and good captains can hack today’s swell offshore and enjoy some deeper-water fishing, but smaller boats should stay inside the bay essentially the entire week. With Friday and Saturday’s coastal storm (hit or miss), don’t even bother going out or at least out into the inlets. On Sunday, things will begin to calm down, but not until later in the day when the wind finally swings over to the NW. If I were a betting man, Monday will look like the best day boating-wise for those who like to go offshore.
SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE CREATES NYC HEATWAVE QUESTIONS – Our next weather-maker spills across the upper Midwest, but we’ll have one more quiet day in the form of a beautiful Wednesday.
Radar is very quiet and will remain so until the approach of a frontal system tomorrow afternoon. This weak boundary could spark a few scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be capable of gusty winds and hail.
GET ANGRY BEN A NICE CIGAR!
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