SE Ridge Failure Tropical Moisture Impact NYC Forecast

SE Ridge Failure Tropical Moisture Impact NYC Forecast

Good morning everyone. Yesterday wound up being a bit odd forecast-wise, where we achieved the same results in terms of severe weather, but got there taking the Goodfellas route through the back door and kitchen. Fortunately, the other side of the forecast is holding as yesterday’s action cleared out the atmosphere to give us a couple of days of dry, cool conditions.


storm free

For today, the sun is out with no surprises. Look for a relatively cool day, with dry conditions and a stiff, gusty westerly wind; highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s in most spots.

We’ll have a repeat tomorrow, but dial back the wind a bit. Due to things moving along a little faster and highs pressure failing to establish a foothold in the SE, I think we introduce clouds late tomorrow for Wednesday’s system. Highs tomorrow in the 70-75 realm.


storm free

I do think we get hot again in the Southeast, but it only lasts Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure moving fairly quickly off of the coast instead of throwing out the anchor and pouring itself a mint julep. That’ll cut down on the wave after wave of energy action here in the Northeast which could’ve lasted for 5-7 days again.

On Wednesday, we’ll still have clouds and sun, warmer and more humid, with the chance of a shower or storm at anytime in the afternoon. We go for upper 70’s to low 80’s, then a better chance of showers and storms at night. We repeat on Thursday with an almost carbon copy day/night.

However, on Friday we clear things out and may stay clear.


storm free

We knew Friday had the potential to be clear, but if the ridge in the SE took hold again, another set of waves could’ve entered the picture for the weekend. With tropical moisture moving into southern TX via the Gulf Coast of Mexico, heading into the Midwest, and high pressure moving out of the SE, this may result in high pressure dipping down from our north.

IF this happens, it could suppress everything and make all of our systems, including our tropical moisture, slip well to our south.

In the meantime, we’ll call for a sunny and dry Friday with highs around 75-80. Calling the weekend right now is a Hail-Mary, but if all of these things come together correctly, we could see a sunny and dry Saturday and Sunday with maritime high pressure; highs ranging from mid 70’s to mid 80’s depending on where high pressure goes.

I continue to see no heatwaves in the immediate future, including the Southeast as everyone returns to more average type weather for this time of season. I also see a little bit of less rain and a little bit of more sun for our local area. Let’s see how everything pans out.

storm free



Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.