THIRD NYC NOREASTER STARTS TONIGHT SNOW WIND EXPECTED – Good morning everyone. Our two systems are beginning to emerge from their respective areas; one from Canada and into the Great Lakes region, the other coming out of the Mississippi Valley. These will begin to combine over the course of tonight and early tomorrow to help bring yet another headache for the Northeast in the form of our third Nor’easter in less than two weeks, and near-blizzard conditions in some areas.

Original Snow Map Holds

The original snow map generated for this storm holds and confidence is high for Suffolk County on Long Island, moderate for points west. The cutoff for the heavy snow and hardly any snow will be very sharp and it’ll also be very close to our area, especially for those in the NYC/Nassau area. This is evident in the fact that the National Weather Service has taken down Winter Storm Watches for Nassau, and replaced them with Winter Weather Advisories. (posted for the NYC area as well) This is also why I have have been so adamant about this map, even if it turns out to be half-right in the end.

I stress though and I’ll say it again – regardless of how much snow we see or don’t see, this is still a very serious storm due to the events of the past few weeks. The soil is still soft and we have weakened trees, light structure, and infrastructure to contend with. More downed trees, power outages, and property damage are possible because of this.


Clouds will increase today, with the slight chance of some light rain by mid-afternoon. Again, this time of year and especially during the day, we would need heavy precip to cool down the atmosphere significantly to produce any snow during the onset of anything. So expect a rainy/mix start until the system gets closer and we introduce some colder air into the mix. Highs today will be in the low to mid 40’s.

Overnight, any rain or mix should change to all snow at or around midnight. It’s going to take some time to start sticking, especially with a wet ground and temps above freezing, but areas that do see the heavier snow, it should begin to cover the ground, especially colder surfaces such as grass, cars, and tree limbs. For areas away from the City and out on Long Island, lows will be hovering near-freezing, so expect to have a slightly easier time getting that snow to stick, especially when we start to see the intensity ramp up.

Snow continues into tomorrow afternoon, then possibly end as a light mix late afternoon when the Nor’Easter begins to pull away and our atmosphere “warms” up slightly. Look for highs in the low 40’s tomorrow, which will help begin the melting process. As far as winds expected with this system, 20-30mph sustained is not out of the question, especially near the shore. Add in gusts 40-45+ possible, and you can see why I have my concerns about weakened trees, utility poles, and other light structure. Areas closer to the center of circulation, such as the east end of Long Island, could see even stronger gusts; especially open coastal areas.

After our third Nor’easter

Things begin to calm down, but we’re left with a windy and cold night tomorrow. Look for lows in the low 30’s, but mid to upper 20’s away from the City. The remaining piece of upper-level energy exits on Wednesday, with a windy day, and some scattered popcorn-like flurries/light showers in places till late afternoon. When the sun goes down, these will fizzle out; highs in the low to mid 40’s.

Mid 40’s will continue for the rest of the week, with increasing sun as we go onward and into the weekend. Look for highs approaching near 50 for both Saturday and Sunday. So far in the long range, I don’t see anything outrageous in terms of big systems or extreme temps either way; but the active pattern continues, so be on the lookout for more rain and maybe some front-related, short-lived, above normal temps.


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