Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast
Tropical Storm Hurricane Conditions Likely NYC Long Island
Good morning everyone. Our forecast is starting to take a more ominous tone as models begin to agree that at minimum, Long Island or parts of Long Island are likely to see TS/Hurricane conditions on Sunday; while NYC may see tropical storm conditions as well.
SATELLITE
For today, expect more clouds than sun, highs in the mid to upper 80’s, and the chance of some scattered showers/storms. We’ll have a mix of sun & clouds tomorrow as well, with mid 80’s and the chance of a few scattered showers or storms.
WEATHER RADAR
We’re watching Henri very closely as the same two models yesterday in close agreement, take that close agreement a touch west. Now our NAM models have Henri making landfall somewhere between Western Suffolk and Montauk, while the GFS has it over or just east of Montauk.
The door is shut for an out-to-sea solution, and the only “miracle” would be a SE New England strike instead of Long Island. This is why Hurricane Watches have been posted, as well as Storm Surge Watches as well. For those who live in coastal areas, the best perspective or visual to try and explain the surge, is that it’ll most likely be Irene-like. For areas of the South Shore of Long Island, if you got flooding during Irene, you need to pay attention to this system. Now on the flip side, just because you didn’t get water during Irene, doesn’t mean you won’t this time. It all depends on where Henri makes landfall and where the largest surge sets up. The statement prior, was specifically for areas such as Broad Channel, Far Rockaway, Long Beach, Freeport, Baldwin, Lindenhurst, Seaford, Wantagh, etc. who saw flooding during Irene.
This is a compact storm, and the cutoff for winds will be abrupt. While we expect Henri’s wind field to expand as it hits cooler water and land, only a small area will see hurricane force winds if Henri is able to hold onto Hurricane status once he reaches it.
As far as timing is concerned, expect conditions to deteriorate early morning Sunday, and continue into Sunday afternoon/evening. As far as storm surges are concerned on Sunday, I am concerned for the 8:30-9:30am high tides across the area, as well as the 9-10pm high tides. Across NYC and Long Island, those will be the times for peak flooding.
Stay tuned and we will update as the situation changes and will need to be adjusted for the best accuracy.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.