TROUGH SHIFT INCREASES NYC FLOODING CHANCE TOMORROW

TROUGH SHIFT INCREASES NYC FLOODING CHANCE TOMORROW – Good morning everyone. Our tropical weather continues as the concentrated area of heavy rain hangs to our west, but things are about to change over the next 24hrs.

For today, that strong southerly flow continues. We’ll have sun and clouds with the chance of a brief, pop-up shower or thunderstorm at any point in the day; warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80’s. As far as the beaches are concerned, rip currents continue to be problematic with sustained winds off of the ocean. You can go to the beach and enjoy the slightly more comfortable air, but swimming is not advised with the rough surf on top of the currents.

Tomorrow, that plume of moisture going south to north associated with the stubborn trough will slowly shift eastward towards our area. This will help conditions deteriorate as the day goes on, with an increasing chance of gusty, heavy showers and storms. Flash flooding tomorrow afternoon and overnight Wednesday will be an issue for the areas which see precip going over the same area over and over again. We don’t know where or who that is yet, but be advised that the potential for us to be in that zone is possible. With cloudy skies during our strongest heating hours and a strong flow off of the ocean, look for highs in the upper 70’s to near 80 (and muggy again).

We’ll still have the chance for some heavy rain Thursday morning, which could make the morning commute tricky, but we’ll slowly return to pattern we’ve seen Sunday through today. After some steadier rain possible in the morning, look for more pop-up, widely scattered action as the day goes on. We could also see some sun here and there. Depending on how much sun, we’ll return to muggy low to mid 80’s.

Friday remains to look as if it could be the warmest day of the week, with morning sun, afternoon sun and clouds, slight chance of a pop-up shower or storm. Look for mid 80’s if the sunshine is minimal, upper 80’s to near 90 if we max out on the sunshine.

The weekend continues to have the potential to be dry, with only the slight chance of a shower on Saturday; sun and and clouds, highs in the mid 80’s. Then, more sun than clouds, no rain, and low to mid 80’s for Sunday. As of now, Sunday is looking like the best of the two days.

In the long range, it looks as if a similar setup tries to reform over our area; with a south/southwest flow and troughy conditions up and down the east coast. Depending on how active or not it gets, this returning pattern has the potential to be a warmer one, with upper 80s/low 90’s possible thrown in there at times in between precip. Either way, it’ll be warm, moist and humid going into early August, with no cooler air in sight unless it’s a precip related washout day.