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WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR NYC COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE SYSTEM
Good morning everyone and happy Saturday! Yes, it’s a gloomy one out there, but at least it’s the weekend. We have several flavors of NYC winter that we’ll experience over the course of the next 7-12 days, which includes keeping an eye on all the types of precip we can get around here.
EASTERN SATELLITE
First off, we have a gloomy and raw day here in the NYC Metro Area. Clouds and on and off cold rain will be with us for most of the day; highs in the low to mid 40’s. Overnight, we begin to clear out, paving the way for a sunny and windy day tomorrow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40’s and we’ll dry out fast, but the wind will be whipping pretty good out of the west with gusts to near 40mph possible.
REGIONAL RADAR
Monday is looking near-normal for this time of year, with sunny skies early, increasing clouds late, and highs in the low to mid 30’s. With an approaching system, those low to mid 30’s will be enough to start out the precip Monday night as some wet snow and/or rain mixed with sleet and snow.
There won’t be any surprises though as temps will climb through the night as this system is not snow-friendly, turning everything to rain before sunrise. We’ll have some rain to start off Tuesday, highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, then lingering clouds.
Cooler air slowly works in for Wednesday with upper 30’s to low 40’s, then we are back to near-average for this time of year with mid to upper 30’s both Thursday and Friday.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Next weekend, I think the first shot of colder air arrives. How it arrives is the question. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the split jet stream to see if they phase or not, or even phase too late.
If there is no phasing, we’ll have 2 pieces of energy slip to our north and south(the northern part representing the colder shot of air), with possibly some light precip in the process; then colder air works in briefly until a more robust cold shot nears a few days later.
If there is phasing close to the area, you know what that means; we’ll have a pretty vigorous system lurking. As of now it would be way too early to discuss precip, what type, timing, amounts, etc. However a storm, specifically a departing big storm, would keep the colder air in the area until that more robust cold shot moves in; giving us a pretty good block of colder than average air.
If things phase late and we have a deep low that misses us, then we’ll have something in-between in terms of the two scenarios above. That’ll help pull down some below average air for an extra day or two, then a brief warm-up before that much colder air moves in.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
In the end, I do believe that we’ll be seeing some much colder air arriving mid-month and onward, but I still have doubts about how long it lasts. As far as next weekend’s system, you won’t see me hyping anything up yet and I’m approaching things with caution. We still have today’s system and Monday night/Tuesday’s system to get through before we can even think about a 3rd system. That’s the distance between Earth and Mars in my book when things are active.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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