LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT NYC NOREASTER FOUR COLDER SOLUTION
LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT NYC NOREASTER FOUR COLDER SOLUTION
LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT NYC NOREASTER FOUR COLDER SOLUTION – Good morning everyone. Let me start out by saying this before everyone gets excited, we have a LONG way to go on this. Latest model runs depict a colder solution and something less huggy as far as our low pressure, so I’ll go into what that would mean for us below IF it were to play out that way.
As far as our immediate forecast, expect that wind to return today, with unseasonably cool temps and a bite in the air tonight. Check out my link here if you want to see the weekend forecast or take a peek into the long range.
Now for the 800lb gorilla in the room. While models are all over the place as far as path and how much cold air we get into next weeks Nor’Easter, they all agree on one thing – we’ll be needing to keep an eye out on yet another storm. Until we start falling into a good range for the short range NAM, I think the GFS has the best solution in terms of duration and timing, but there are several problems otherwise.
As stated yesterday, the GFS depicts low pressure transferring energy from the Ohio Valley to the coast. Ok, I think we’re pretty solid on that, but it’s too far out at this point to say exactly where. However, I do think it’ll be close enough to give us our 4th Nor’easter-type system in such a short duration. Then, it depicts low pressure heading northeast, leaving behind enough energy for a second low (remnants of the original low) to redevelop on the heels of the first coastal system, and give us another and colder round of precip.
This I have a problem with, not because it can’t happen, but I’ve never seen a model get this scenario right. It is a very difficult thing for models (and forecasters) to zero in on, much like a NORLUN trough for those who know their meteorological terms. If it were to play out exactly as depicted this morning, we would have a round of rain and mix, followed by a departing shot of snow.
So for now we’ll keep it simple. Starting late Tuesday, we have a decent shot at another Nor’easter or Nor’easter-like system. As of now, I’m still sticking to a mix to rain to mix to snow to rain type scenario for the NYC area, with possibly all snow in the interior. Regardless, any snow that does fall will be of the wet variety; and as we’ve seen for the past three Nor’easters, getting snow to stick in March is very difficult.
Look for a slower moving, longer duration event if it happens, possibly causing some coastal problems since we will be only 3 days removed from the peak of the new moon. Whether it’s a double-barrel low pressure, one big low with upper air energy taking it’s sweet time leaving, or something in between, I think it takes till mid to late Thursday to fully clear things out.
Stay tuned as we try and pinpoint who may see a spring snowstorm, and who gets the rain and/or sea salt flavored slushy slop.
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